The End of Scarcity.
A thought provoking article by Zita Subasinghe Perera
based on a BBC Radio 4 programme.1
The
end of scarcity, want, poverty, shortfall, deficiency? I know the above
pronouncement will catch the eye of any human being. But it’s exactly the meaning
behind a talk on this subject by James Burke on 26-12-2017 on BBC Radio 4. I
listened to the recorded version twice as I was fascinated by the idea and now
I am sharing it with you as it is thought provoking and it is not too
far-fetched. Well, let me get on with it. The idea is one we are familiar with:
The present state of science, technology and the advancements during the past,
nearly 150 years of industrial revolution, has provided us the means to live without ‘want’. The principle of
Mr Burke’s thesis is that ‘necessity sparks, sets off and keeps in motion,
Innovation’. So, the lack of ‘Want’ can spell
the end of Innovation.
Happily, the
first WW in the early 20th Century gave a spurt of energy to
advancement in ‘Innovation’. The piston pump was replaced by the rotary pump, a
Glasgow University repairman being credited with this. WW2 in the mid 20th
century gave rise to the need for units like ‘ladies who calculated the angle
at which a shot has to be fired to hit the enemy target’ and at that time they
were called ‘computers’.
The first mechanical Computer
And now in the
mid to late 20th century, the innovative geniuses produced the first
‘computer,’ a machine to handle the multiple calculations which were earlier
done by the ladies of WW1.Mr Burke refersto this as ‘the intention to give
humans a means to do complex activities in a very short time and expense.’
Big Data
The computer has
the ability to hold big numbers- called Big Data which big companies use for
‘predictive analyses. Big Data leaves a footprint whenever and wherever we do
something ‘online’ and companies use this to send us adverts and pressurise us
to buy stuff. Big data uses our smart phones in our pockets to learn where we
are and prompt us what to buy things and even the payment can be done
instantaneously by connecting us to our bank accounts. It happens already in
certain Big Stores the whole process being calledGrab and Go.
The Start of the end of Scarcity
In the 1950s
they were able to predict that if we went on with ‘business as usual ‘and
scarcity gradually ended we’ll face economic collapse by the end of the 21st
century as the stimulus of Scarcity to bring about Innovation would not be
there. Early to Mid 20th C saw the start of over population,
industrialisation, starvation and resource depletion driven by our consumer
life style. The international political reaction to this was putting the brakes
on fossil fuels and cutting back on urban expansion and industrialisation,
almost Apocalypse Now!
Making machines smaller the answer?
Fortunately, the
innovative thinker in the form of Nobel Prize winner Richard Fyneman comes to
the fore. He thought the answer is to make machines as small as possible. It
turns out that it is possible to make each ‘bit’ (a piece of info) as small as
one atom long. It took a while to get things moving but in 1987 two IBM ers
invented the scanning, tunnelling microscope to make molecules. There are ‘gazillions
of molecules everywhere, an inexhaustible resource’. Using this new device, one
could put atoms and molecules together and you could produce anything you want
even a cup of tea! These machines were in nanometres (the width of a hair is 80
nanometres.) This Nano processor is also called a moat a word derived from a ‘moat of dust’ as that is the size of
this machine!
Nanoproducts and Nanotechnology
These products,
called Nano-products, are already being made in about 2000 labs around the
world! Nano particles are found in cosmetics, bacterial bandaging and wrinkle
free, water-proof clothing. Using a Nano processor,one could ‘stick the end of
a straw into dirty water and drink clean water at the other end’. Nano
technology can be used to produce solar cells enabling the consumerisation of
the 8 billion people of the earth in one giant economy therefore costing no
fuel but just the energy of the sun in the solar cell. Many big Institutes around
the world are working flat out to achieve this.
Replication
Like in ‘Star Trek’ we are making the road map
to Replication, i.e. to replicate anything. You can call this ‘merging
computation and communication with fabrication to bring the programmability of
the digital world over to our analogue world’. But remember, you are making
what you CAN make and not what you NEED to make. And you can end up with a
surplus.
Digitising designs and materials.
So, as told above,
onecan digitise designs.
The next is to
digitise materials using elements H, O, C, N and 20 amino acids. That is all
you need. This is anyway what man has done in the past 4 billion years or so of
evolution. Difference? Now it will be so much faster. These machines called
moats do away with the need to cultivate the land and harvest or work in
factories. It’s all there in a machine at atomic level giving you all you need.
And all you need to do is talk to it. Yes, you actually ‘talk to it’. Science
fiction? No! It’s Fact and it happens now!
End of Innovation and Isolation of man
The problem is
that the End of Scarcity spells the End of Innovation, stand- still and
isolation of man. Family is not
necessary, under this scheme. Socialisation? No! You can have your grandma and
your pals and treat them to a slap-up dinner. You can tell your Moat and it
will enable you to talk to them and they will come as 3D holograms so real that
you forget they are not. You’ll never be lonely or bored.
Spending time with Nature
Want to visit
the countryside? You can create it where you are, with all the features you
want, a river, a farm, anything you like. All you do is tell your moat to do
it. Sounds like winning the lottery? Well Yes and No! Read on and you will see
the reason.
What’s awaiting mankind
You send a Nano
factory to every city country and village and they make all the extra ones they
need and make one available to every family, even every individual. There would
be no need for money, or a job, no need for taxes, in fact, no need for
governments as what they do is spend our tax money to maintain the infrastructure.
Education and Health?
Moats
controlling the medical devices made at home can look after health. As for
Education: education for what? In today’s world with robots taking over our
jobs, and education is to make us creative, one can ask, creative for what
purpose?
Culture
What about the
culture we shared? Well, we’ll never again need to group together to survive.
Abundance
We know how to
deal with scarcity, i.e. Innovate! But abundance? We have little experience of
that. But all this will take no more than 50 years to hit us. Is all this a
figment of the imagination? Well, even if some of it happens to be, surely, we
ought to think about it?
The final outcome
In the popular
joke, a man drops from the top of a sky scraper and as he is passing the 50th
floor you ask him how he’s doing. And he says ‘So far so good!’ But you know
‘hitting the bottom’ is not far away!
-
The End!-
Zita has made us think on a whole host of issues and reflect on the future direction of Humankind. May I strongly recommend a book I just finished reading which I as the most thought provoking and fascinating book I have read for a long time. It is called, “Sapiens – A Brief History of Humankind! By Yuval Noah Harari. He is a Jewish Historian and Philosopher and not directed to the Famous Noah of Ark fame as far as I know. He discusses Biology, evolutionary Anthropology, History and Economics in a language and style which is refreshingly readable and challenging. I am not able to summarise his book in a few sentences. He talks about the amazing emergence of Homo Sapiens as the most successful living species ever and the astounding and exponential way in which he has progressed in the last 500 years, a mere blink in the eye of time. To quote from his book, “The last 500 years have witnessed a phenomenal and unprecedented growth in human power. In the year 1500, there were about 500 million Home Sapiens in the entire world, Today there are 7 billion. The total value of goods and services produced by humankind in the year 1500 is an estimated $250 billion, in today;s dollars. Nowadays the production is $6o Trillion. Human population has increased 14 fold, production 240 fold and energy consumption115 fold”. The massive increase in population is recent because early humans did not survive long. Infant mortality was massive and life expectancy was relatively short. Considering that Homo Sapiens started about 200,000 years ago, evolved into cultural groups only 70,000 years ago, into Agricultural communities only12,000 years ago and the explosion of the Scientific revolution was only 500 years ago! The first microorganism sighting was in 1674. It is staggering to think of how long us Humans stood in the doldrums as it were- thousands of years and then something happened!
ReplyDeleteAbout MOATES, I knew little or nothing about them and my google searches were non-productive till I realised that they are MOTES and not MOATS!)sorry Zita!) This is what I found out about MOTES.
The core of a mote is a small, low-cost, low-power computer.
The computer monitors one or more sensors. It is easy to imagine all sorts of sensors, including sensors for temperature, light, sound, position, acceleration, vibration, stress, weight, pressure, humidity, etc. Not all mote applications require sensors, but sensing applications are very common.
The computer connects to the outside world with a radio link. The most common radio links allow a mote to transmit at a distance of something like 10 to 200 feet (3 to 61 meters). Power consumption, size and cost are the barriers to longer distances. Since a fundamental concept with motes is tiny size (and associated tiny cost), small and low-power radios are normal. Motes can either run off of batteries, or they can tap into the power grid in certain applications. As motes shrink in size and power consumption, it is possible to imagine solar power or even something exotic like vibration power to keep them running. It is hard to imagine something as small and innocuous as a mote sparking a revolution, but that's exactly what they have done. Some applications- A biologist could equip an endangered animal with a collar containing a mote that senses position, temperature, etc. As the animal moves around, the mote collects and stores data from the sensors. In the animal's environment, the biologists could place zones or strips with data collection motes. When the animal wanders into one of these zones, the mote in the collar would dump its data to the ad hoc network in the zone, which would then transmit it to the biologist. Motes placed every 100 feet on a highway and equipped with sensors to detect traffic flow could help police recognize where an accident has stopped traffic. Because no wires are needed, the cost of installation would be relatively low.
I shall stop there! Already too long
That is a completely factual and enlightening search for information you have done, Mahendra, in response to my reporting and presenting of a fun full, at times frightening and but mostly a bit tongue-in-cheek account of the end of scarcity by James Burke. Yet both these accounts are thought provoking. Your reporting of the research is of course very believable and informative. I agree that Motes (thanks for correcting the spelling. Moats are actually ‘water filled ditches’!) yes motes being connected by radio link to the outside world and running on low power batteries (or even solar power- J B addition) and being capable of transmitting information to the world as you have reported is invaluable information and sounds a step forwards, towards keeping our environment under control. However, what’s to stop human beings dreaming of extended capabilities and going a step further to extrapolate the functions and uses of these motes? I appreciate too, your reporting that humans seemed to lay relatively dormant or slow moving, up until the last 500 years when suddenly ‘bang!’ there’s a veritable explosion in terms of knowledge, unravelling history, advancement in maths and other fields. I wonder whether our batch mates have an explanation of this to offer? Going back to your comment, it’s exactly what I need to be grounded after peeping into James Burke’s analysis. Oh, and I made a note buy and to read ‘Sapiens- a Brief History of Mankind’. Thank you! From Zita
DeleteZita and Mahen
ReplyDeleteAll too much for my little brain. I am just a rustic from the lush green valleys of Kegalle. Enjoy your journey into the abstract.
Oh no! That's not true, Nihal! You are one of the most versatile thinkers, analysts and reporters found in our batch or anywhere for that matter. I am looking forward to reading your newest presentation, having been away from the Blog a few days. I know all members appreciate and read your posts on this blog. Cheers! from Zita
DeleteZita, Thank you for sharing these thoughts with us.
ReplyDeleteLack of scarcity is something to dream of provided it can be global.
It is unfortunate that in spite of all the advancements in technology and the wealth amassed by some with innovation, scarcity of basic needs is still the reality in many parts of this planet. Innovation has not always been a result of scarcity- and will continue to progress as the human mind craves for more and more. Not even the sun is the limit anymore for some while others live in hunger .
Iam sorry to sound like such a wet blanket even though I appreciate the great visionaries. Was a good read - cheers
Rohini, thanks for that! I truly appreciate what you say. This is the beauty of a discussion as we can make others to THINK! How right you are about the existing scarcity in certain parts of the world while some are attempting to be the one to go nearest to the sun! We don't need to wait for the 'End of Scarcity' by the help of motes, we can do it now by our generosity and sharing our resources with the needy. That's where good thinking, compassion and kindness come in and we don't need the help of 'motes' to do that! We have it now but some suppress it by selfishness. Thank you for pointing out this valuable fact. Zita
DeleteI was hoping that Zita's article will provoke more comments. It is my nature to be inquisitive and ponder on abstract things such as Moral values, consciousness, The Meaning of Life etc! Some may with some justification that it is a waste of time only a retired man with no responsibiities can indulge in but my counter ti that is that pondering on these topics make you more humble and places you more realistically in the scheme of things. It also helps you to understand people, how they behave and possibly more empathetic and forgiving.
ReplyDeleteI want to introduce a new word to Readers today which I read in one of the most significant books I have read recently, on a par with Sapiens which I have already alluded to The book is called "Factfullness" and written by a Swedish author, Hans Rosling. The book shows us very elegantly how wrong the belief that the World is a worse place and becoming worse every year, is. Just to quote a few selected facts from the book, I draw you attention to Bad Things that are dereasing.Legal Slavery was evident in 193 Countries in 1800. In 2017 it is down to 3 countries. Children dying before their 5th birthday 44% (1800) to 4% (2016). Proportion of undernourished 28% (1970) to 11% (2015). (In fact Sapiens author Harrari points out that for the first time in Human History more people die of Obesity than staration!). Countries with Small Pox 148 (1850) to 0 (1979). Now for the good things that are getting better. Women's right to vote 0(1893) and 193 countries (2017). Literacy 10% in 1800 to 86% (2014). He also points out that the idea that there is a group of "Haves" and "Have-nots" in the World is false. There is no polarisation to these two groups, but a spread into 4 Levels.
The last point is his coinage of a new word to describe people. We are used to Optimist, Pessimist and Realist. He has coined the term "Possibilist" (close to Realist but not quit the same- it is to me almost like a Realistic Optimist!. His definition is that a Possibilist is someone who neither hopes without reason, nor fears without reason, someone who constantly resists the overdramatic worldview. It is to have clear and reasonable idea about how things are and a worldview that is constructive and useful.
I commend this book to you. Published by Sceptre publications- Factfulness" by Hans Rosling.(2018)
Mahendra,those are really 'Pearls' you have just uttered or written rather. I have not yet read the books on 'Sapiens' and 'Factfulness' but the data you have given about the situations in the world indeed proves that the conditions are better at present than they used to be. Moral values, which we have often discussed, are definitely favouring the continuation and advancement of the human race, quite independent of what religions teach. These can form very interesting, massive discussions if our members wish. Zita
DeleteThank you Zita & Mahen for those thought provoking articles. As I see it there will always be "Have nots & those who have it all". There will always be scarcity all around if you are a have not. This leads to necessity. To me "Necessity is the "MOTHER OF INVENTION". This I believe is what led to all the inventions & innovation of our Humankind.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteMahen, I agree with you that Factfulness by Rosling is a good book to read, to know where we are right now without the hype either way.
ReplyDeleteIt is true that most things have improved considerably for people from what they were in the past, as graphically presented by Rosling, and detailed by you.
One can only hope that innovation will ensure ‘lack of scarcity’ globally in the not too distant future.
you are right Rohini, a lot more needs to be done although a lot has been achieved and Rosling emphaises this point. Improvement is never complete by its very definition and is a continuous process. One of the the things that impresses me most is the advance in the way women are treated, although there is still a long way to go.I am not a believer that men and women are equal because they are not, but I am a passionate supporter for providing equal opportunities for humans regardless of gender, and selecting the best people for a particular job with equal remuneration.
DeleteJust to add one more point about women. I do feel sad when a woman says "I am only a mother and housewife" as to me, that is as important an "occupation" as any in this World. Women who choose this option should be admired and women should not be under any pressure to seek employment just to be regarded by Society as useful. On the other hand, if a woman genuinely wishes to pursue a profession or any form of employment she should have the opportunities to do so.
DeleteI quite agree with Mahendra that one cannot say men and women are equal. They belong to the same human race and though they have the same DNA man has a xy sex chromosome while a woman has 2x so they differ at that fundamental level. Also man and woman think differently, have different strengths and weaknesses, but they complement each other and share in the formation of the offspring so the best way to consider them is: as complementing each other as said before. Women are also good or better at multitasking and dare I say, a woman's emotional intelligence is a bit better? Zita (expecting a barrage of protests!)
ReplyDeleteMahen and Zita, Between the two of you , you have summarized the essence of the men vs women issue.
ReplyDeleteAt this point in time, I don’t believe that men and women are equal either, as much as an apple cannot be said to be equal to an orange.
Humans, as all other species are, are in a process of evolution, and where we are now is a step in a process. As Rosling points out throughout his book, our default behavior and attitudes are derived from our ancestors from Hunter/gatherer times. At this point we could say women are physically weaker, emotionally different, more nurturing etc. However, over time , there could be changes. Instead of little girls of my time dreaming of becoming ballerinas, nowadays their dreams are of becoming fighter pilots, firefighters and astronauts.
Some exceptional women have been all of these for decades, and attitudes and abilities could keep evolving.
Men could become more emotionally intelligent and more nurturing, as can be seen even now, with more men taking on caring roles, and women could develop enormous physical strength as they take to logging, rowing, sailing etc - a matter of practice making perfect. - in a process of evolution.
Intellectually, there have been women who have shone in many fields men have considered their own as far back as 1000 BC. Well documented is the case of Hypetia of Alexandria around 300 - 400 BC approx ,who was valued for her work in astronomy, mathematics, and philosophy- perhaps more, but was rewarded with torture and murder for her brilliance. Trying to banish the glass ceiling in the 21st century isn’t a big deal in comparison! In any field, and whatever the gender, there will be a spread of abilities between the extremes, and generalizing, I am of the opinion that there is equality between the genders as far as intellect is concerned.
Women have come to be treated way better than they were in the past, though the list of discriminations and inequalities is still too long. I am certain things will keep getting better - though too slowly it seems !
As Rosling has said- small changes become significant over time, and how he illustrates this might interest you-
“In the third century BC,the world’s first nature reserve was created by King Devanampiya Tissa in Sri Lanka when he declared a piece of forest to be officially protected. It took more than 2000 years for a European, in West Yorkshire to get a similar idea, and another 50 years before Yellowstone National Park was established in the United States. ........Slowly,slowly,decade by decade,
one forest at a time, the number has climbed.....Today a stunning15 percent of the Earth’s surface is protected...”
Similarly, slowly,slowly and step by step, equality between the genders will evolve-
I am an optimistic ”possibilist”! Not just a dreamer I hope !
Erratum-
ReplyDelete1.Hypatia - approx 350 to 415 AD (not BC)
2. Her death more political rather than directly due to her brilliance , though the latter was what made her a target.
Rohini, those are absolutely marvellous facts and figures you have given us. You are an optimistic possibilitist indeed. And you have pointed out some very important facts about the question of equality and you have authenticated them by quoting references. Now let me add my tuppence worth. I think, at the risk of getting a tsunami of protests, much of woman's achievements throughout history has been suppressed by the powers that be mostly headed by men. Woman was always thought to be more fit for the home and child care and any attempt at hob nobbing with Man in subjects like literature, maths, science was always played down. Until very recently, let's say early to mid nineteen hundred i.e. the 20th Century, it was very difficult for women to have themselves heard, their literature published and enter into predominantly previously male dominated fields. There is no doubt about that. We know about the suffrajet movement. So there! I have not read as much as you and Mahendra have done but I have heard and seen quite a lot. Thanks a lot for your contribution. Zita
ReplyDeleteZita, being a pianist in UK, you probably came to know that some of the classics attributed to Felix Mendelssohn- (even some of the beautiful “songs without words”), had been composed by Fanny his sister.
DeleteOnly as recently as 2017 were these compositions performed and attributed to her for the first time by the Royal Schools of Music, London - 150 years after they were composed !
Entirely agree that women have been unfairly treated tight through history. The reasons for this has been the subject of a lot of debate but what ever they are the fact that they were given a bad deal is true.
ReplyDeleteMy point about women should be proud when they declare themselves as housewives was not meant to devalue them in any way but an acknowledgement of the value of this role.i am glad my valued female colleagues agree with me that we are different and saying we are not equal is a way of stating this .
Mahen, there was no need to explain! Your two comments on the 25th were
ReplyDeleteself explanatory, and I admire your views with which I agree wholeheartedly.
May be we should encourage people to use the term homemaker rather than housewife! Cheers
Zita, thank you for your thought provoking article. It certainly stimulated a lively discussion. Mahen and Rohini, I learned a lot from your comments. I didn't know about the first protected nature reserve being in Sri Lanka, I don't think that Fanny M was the only woman whose work was attributed to a man. And let me add my two cents to the male/female debate: If a man and a woman are performing the same job, they deserve the same pay, plain and simple! Sadly, this is not true in many situations. Also, if a man or a woman chooses to be the primary homemaker, they shouldn't have to explain their choice to anyone.
ReplyDeleteWe started the discussion talking about motes, which made me think of another innovation which is improving the quality of life for many, i.e. the smart phone! I've read that it has allowed farmers in rural India bring their products to places where they can be sold without using a "middleman." It is also helping self employed people save some of their earnings by using banking Apps in many countries, including Sri Lanka. On a personal level in addition to its phone function, it is also a calculator, flashlight, portable music player, note book, physical activity tracker and of course, a handheld computers! It is amazing! I'm sure I have left out many other functions...